Recently in Epic Category

The Neumanskys already covered 1831 San Jose Avenue, but I figured I'd throw my bonnet into the ring because this listing is so completely out of touch with the market it deserves an award.

1831 San Jose is a very pretty Victorian (although I personally ogled its roof and siding a week or two ago, and let me tell you neither looks all that great, but then again I'm not a roofer, sider, or home inspector, so for all I know it's all brand new and I need new glasses). It sits semi-grandly in the famed Leonardville district, named after a prolific and talented builder of the late-ish 1800s, surrounded by other Victorians with varying degrees of grandness (the corner-lotted one east of today's property is particularly magnificent, and huge).

1831-san-jose-craigslist.jpgIt's large-ish (2,072 sqft) on a decent sized lot (6,600 sqft) and sports 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms, which is nothing to sneeze at. The listing claims 3 levels, but it's not clear whether the "lower level" (frequently, and equivalently, referred to as "basement") meets all the city's criteria for regular living space (e.g. the city has stringent requirements on parking availability for any unit or subset of a larger home to be counted as living space, over and above what the building code requires in terms of ceiling height and such). 2,072 sqft isn't a small home, but by way of comparison its prenominate easterly neighbor at 1835 San Jose is over twice as large, with 8 bedrooms in 4,761 sqft of Victorian goodness standing unarguably grandly on a large corner lot.

The property does look very pretty in its Craigslist photos, and the yard is quite a sight (the agent calls it "magical"). The listing agent also describes the kitchen as "French-infused", which may have been achieved by steeping French chefs in hot water for some period of time and spraying the infusion throughout the room using elegant little perfume spritzers (the listing doesn't specify if that is indeed the process the owners used to French-infuse their kitchen). However that French infusion was arrived at, it seems to involve hanging your pots from a ceiling rack, commissioning your appliances from Solingen, and julienning your veggies on very shiny stone slabs. In other words, French infusion is indistinguishable from every other splurge kitchen financed by home equity withdrawals between 2003 and 2006 in the continental United States, at least to the untrained eye:

1831-san-jose-french-infused-kitchen-craigslist-resized.jpgThe price tag for this medium-sized hunk of gorgeosity is a mere $1,390,000. The current owners (over)paid a cool million back in 2004, and proceeded to sink beaucoup bucks into la maison to make it all grand and gorgeous and warm and custom-sound-systemed and French-infused. A good foundation job doesn't come cheap, and neither does finishing a basement-media-room-au-pair-wine-cellar deal, getting Harry Potter to bless your yard, or French infusion, so I wouldn't be surprised if the home improvements since 2004 total north of $150,000, which is again nothing to sneeze at.

The problem, however, is that $1M + whatever French infusion et al. cost bring the total amount to recoup when you want (need?) to sell way, way, way out of line with, well, pretty much anything on the island. One issue the owners may not have planned for is that the lower level improvements don't count towards your legal square footage if they're not, well, legal, as in tall enough and/or accompanied with whatever the city wants you to provide when you make yourself a big ol' house (I'm not implying the owners didn't do this by the book; there's an extensive permit history available over chez the 'skys and I'm not seeing anything untoward here; you may want to check for yourself at www.velocityhall.com; no direct link). But as far as I can tell from the language in the foundation permit, the basement job was never intended for living space (emphasis mine):

(ALL WORK IN BASEMENT) R/R FOUNDATION, BRICK TO CONCRETE; EXCAVATE BASEMENT TO 8'2" CEILING HEIGHT FOR STORAGE ONLY (ONE LIGHT, ONE SWITCH AND ONE PLUG IN STORAGE AREAS); DIVIDE LAUNDRY AREA & INSTALL UNDERGROUND PLUMBING FOR FUTURE FULL BATH; BUILD NON-BEARING WALLS TO CREATE UTILITY ROOM & WINE STORAGE ROOM; ADD 2 STEPS TO EXISTING INTERIOR STAIRWAY; INSTALL NEW WATER HEATER, FURNACE & SUMP PUMP - NO EXTERIOR CHANGES (BLDG/ELEC/PLUM/MECH)

What that means is that your price per sqft isn't $1.39M / 3,100 = $448 (assuming the basement is the same size as the main floor, roughly), but instead a much less palatable $671, which I don't believe has been fetched by any property of any size at any point in the past four years (and almost certainly not the past two). For context, it is 12% higher than the next-highest listings (on a per-sqft basis) currently on the market, one of which has been sitting there unsold for 75 days. At any rate, however, even $448 is pushing the envelope given recent market trends. And there's no garage.

Another way of looking at this issue is by comparing this property to its aforementioned neighbor. Let's do some comparison shopping:

  • To my right, a beautiful 4,761-sqft, 8-bedroom Victorian on a 8,800-sqft corner lot, sold for $1,390,000 near the peak of a bubbly real estate market
  • To my left, a beautiful 2,072-sqft, 5-bedroom Victorian on a 6,600-sqft lot with neighbors on both side, listed at $1,390,000 near the trough of an epic, unprecedented nationwide real estate meltdown accompanied by substantial price cuts in essentially every neighborhood in every city in every state.
If you identified the contestant to my left as the better deal, I don't believe there's much even modern science can do for you.

That's a really long way to say the odds this listing will fetch anywhere close to its asking price are below zero.

Update 8/1/2010: Price dropped to $1,200,000. It needs another $400,000 at the very least to be competitive.

1831-san-jose-price-drop-1.jpg



Today's listing is just plain weird. 1616 Clement Avenue has the following specs:

3 bedrooms, 2 1/2 bathrooms, 2,078 sqft, 3,195-sqft lot, MLS(r) #40453780, $699,000

7 year old lovely home in Marina Cove Nice neighborhood. .upstairs den cld be 4th bdrm, luxurious bath, hardwood floor, spacious fam rm, [...] superb location. .speak clearly and slowly when leaving messages.
The lovely location near the end of Hibbard street (you may remember its almost-neighbor 1810 Hibbard) is truly "superb" if you like old metal buildings (hint: pan the map around a bit):


View Larger Map

The neighborhood is "nice" if you enjoy proximity to large metal containers:

1880-hibbard-street-storage-silos.jpg
The sale history is even weirder:

Property History for 1616 Clement Ave

Date Event Price
Mar 03, 2010 Listed $699,000
Jun 21, 2007 Sold (Public Records) $1,185,545
Jun 24, 2004 Sold (Public Records) $659,000

Even at the peak of the market I can't think of very many properties that appreciated more than 20% annually, yet this house sold for almost double its initial price in just three years.

If you're interested in this property, just remember to speak clearly and slowly.

Guess who's back? Our old friend the unsellable 1626 Alameda Avenue! It now sports a shiny new lower price ($925,000) to go with its new MLS(r) ID (40453300) and its new agent (Andrea Gordon, picking up after Carol Burnett; whose site is down; here's a cached copy).

1628_alameda_avenue_mine.jpgPlease refer to the original post for details, or Chez Neumansky's detailed tour summary for a first-hand account of the place.



Real estate agents are not renowned for the quality of their copy. Agents with English as their second language will get a lot of slack from me, because it's not easy being functional in a foreign country. That said, a home seller has every right to expect their property to be represented in the best possible light, and if that includes paying a professional photographer for nice outdoor shots or slipping a $20 to a starving English major at Alameda College to proofread marketing copy, it's the bare minimum an agent should be held to, regardless of their proficiency in any language. Especially if they stand to make a $60,000 commission from that same seller.

Which is why, for the life of me, I can't fathom why the owners of 26 Castlebar Place, a 4,062-sqft house on the bay with a fantastic view (MLS(r) #40443065) that almost makes up for its spectacularly hideous interior, haven't summarily dismissed the agent presumably responsible for this wretched monstrosity of a listing, reproduced here from Craigslist in its entirety, complete with a photo of said agent in lieu of the property. Emphasis added for extra oomph.


$1999000 / 4br - Exquisite Taste In Living (alameda) (map)


Date: 2009-12-28, 3:34PM PST
Reply to: [redacted]


This property has the most enchanting design. "Outstanding" describes this exquisite custom built home which situated in the best area of Alameda! Approx. 4062 living square feet huge home on a 4800 square feet lot. 2 Stories facing the bay, views are amazing when you care how to enjoy life! patio from master is dainty designed as the bow of a ship!

round Glass Ceiling in the central of the house aborting blue skylight come along with an extraordinary stair shows impressive style precisely. Pragmatic kitchen has its' open dinning area. Built-In Walkie-Talkie throughout the house with gas heated fireplace. Split up section of entertainment, relaxation and a parlor. One bedroom downstairs may be utilized as an office or guestroom with full bathroom off rear. In additional, there is cubbholes for storages under the chairs appear like inhabited solely in a cruise.

* Totally 4 huge bedrooms joined with a spacious family room
* Grand bathroom and walk in closing in expansive master Suite
* Gleaming hardwood floor through out the whole house
* Granite shower stall and marble tile flooring in all bathrooms
* Unique circular shape hallway
* Two car attached garage with storage space
* Wonderful Alameda neighborhood and school district
* Charming and Fresh Feeling, This is the dream home that you have been waiting!


Please E Mail to Victoria Lam at [redacted] for additional information and view the photos by clicking: http://odc.rw.imprev.net/tmp/31/531/8693/

OPEN HOUSE THIS SUNDAY FROM 1-4P.M., SELLER'S MOTIVATE, DON'T MISS THE CHANCE!

victoria_lam_26_castlebar_place.jpg

26 Castlebar Place
  • it's NOT ok to contact this poster with services or other commercial interests
PostingID: 1528128763

In addition to the horrendous English, the virtual tour link is dead.

I fully expect hate mail calling me a racist for picking on poor Victoria's broken English, completely missing the point I am making here (never mind that I myself could very well have been raised in the exact same town as Victoria)--I don't care of you've got a PhD in classics, Wernicke's aphasia, or 2 years of Berlitz English courses under your belt, you simply do not advertise a $2M house like this. It's beyond unprofessional.

The official MLS(r) listing, by Tina Wong, is not great but considerably better, and somewhat imaginatively worded (emphasis added):

This impeccably designed luxury home offers unparalleled view of the bay & its unique design has brought the outside scenery into this voyager. Ample natural lighting via large windows & centre circular dome roof; ea. window assembles a live moving picture, must see to appreciate.
So I don't know what exactly happened to allow that train wreck of a Craigslist post to go live, but someone dropped the ball, and I felt it my duty to bring this to the sellers' attention. Given the property's sale history, it's likely they need to squeeze every penny out of this sale, and this shameful listing sure isn't helping.

Property History for 26 CASTLEBAR Pl

Date Event Price
Dec 21, 2009 Listed $1,999,000
Dec 16, 2003 Sold (Public Records) $1,890,000
Nov 29, 1989 Sold (Public Records) $345,000

Update 12/31/09: Victoria's back.

$1990000 / 4br - Outstanding Custom Built 4000sq.ft. Big House (alameda) (map)


Date: 2009-12-31, 1:26PM PST
Reply to: [redacted]


This property has the most enchanting design. "Outstanding" describes this exquisite custom built home which situated in the best area of Alameda! Approx. 4062 living square feet huge home on a 4800 square feet lot. 2 Stories facing the bay, views are amazing when you care how to enjoy life! patio from master is dainty designed as the bow of a ship!

round Glass Ceiling in the central of the house aborting blue skylight come along with an extraordinary stair shows impressive style precisely. Pragmatic kitchen has its' open dinning area. Built-In Walkie-Talkie throughout the house with gas heated fireplace. Split up section of entertainment, relaxation and a parlor. One bedroom downstairs may be utilized as an office or guestroom with full bathroom off rear. In additional, there is cubbholes for storages under the chairs appear like inhabited solely in a cruise.

* Totally 4 huge bedrooms joined with a spacious family room
* Grand bathroom and walk in closing in expansive master Suite
* Gleaming hardwood floor through out the whole house
* Granite shower stall and marble tile flooring in all bathrooms
* Unique circular shape hallway
* Two car attached garage with storage space
* Wonderful Alameda neighborhood and school district
* Charming and Fresh Feeling, This is the dream home that you have been waiting!


Please E Mail to Victoria Lam at Celestialinv@yahoo.com for additional information and view the photos by clicking: http://odc.rw.imprev.net/tmp/31/531/8693/

OPEN HOUSE THIS SUNDAY FROM 1-4P.M., SELLER'S MOTIVATE, DON'T MISS THE CHANCE! E-Mail to : Celestialinv@yahoo.com for pictures.

26 Castlebar Place (google map) (yahoo map)


Sold!--1304 Morton Street, Alameda, CA

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Hi everybody!

1304 Morton Street finally sold in early December for $938,000, according to Redfin.

In summary:

  • April 2008: 1304 Morton St appears on the market, listed at $1,250,000
  • July 2008: the price is dropped to $1,199,000
  • September 2008: the price is dropped to $1,150,000
  • March 2009, almost a year after the initial listing, the property is relisted for $975,000
  • August 2009: the price is dropped to $949,999
  • December 2009: the property closes for $938,000

The extent and quality of the renovation work on top of the previous sale price (above $500,000) means the now former owners likely didn't make their money back on the transaction.

The moral of the story? Don't over-improve, and don't spend 6 figures on your kitchen.

That's a $312,000 price drop from the initial list price (about 25%) and 20 months on the market. I trust Redfin won't begrudge me a full history:

Property History for 1304 MORTON St

Date Event Price Appreciation Source
Dec 02, 2009 Sold (MLS) $938,000 -- Inactive MLSListings #80911577
Nov 12, 2009 Delisted -- -- Inactive MLSListings #80911577
Sep 22, 2009 Delisted * -- Inactive EBRD #4
Aug 21, 2009 Price Changed * -- Inactive EBRD #4
Aug 21, 2009 Price Changed $949,999 -- Inactive MLSListings #80911577
Mar 10, 2009 Listed * -- Inactive EBRD #4
Mar 06, 2009 Listed $975,000 -- Inactive MLSListings #80911577
Jan 01, 2009 Delisted * -- Inactive San Francisco MLS #1
Nov 21, 2008 Delisted * -- Inactive EBRD #3
Nov 20, 2008 Delisted -- -- Inactive MLSListings #2
Jul 22, 2008 Listed * -- Inactive San Francisco MLS #1
Jul 21, 2008 Price Changed -- -- Inactive MLSListings #2
Jul 19, 2008 Price Changed * -- Inactive EBRD #3
Jun 11, 2008 Price Changed * -- Inactive EBRD #3
Jun 11, 2008 Price Changed -- -- Inactive MLSListings #2
May 02, 2008 Listed * -- Inactive EBRD #3
Apr 25, 2008 Listed -- -- Inactive MLSListings #2

A recent sale on Broadway is of great interest for market-watchers.

912 Broadway has the following specs and delicious first-person description:

4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, ~1,760 sqft, 5,120-sqft lot, MLS(r) #40301101, listed at $875,000

LOVE TO ENTERTAIN PEOPLE? I am a perfect house for you. I have a beautiful backyard with a gorgeous lagoon, hardwood floor throughout, and a livng room with fireplace to cozy up on those cold winter nights.

An alternative listing has a slightly less cute wording:

Gorgeous lagoon home. Open floor plan, updated kitchen with granite counter tops/marble floors/stainless steel appl. Beautiful garden for entertaining. Excellent location, walking distance to beach, shopping center and transportation.

Buried in Redfin's data, you might also notice very reasonable annual HOA dues ($475, or ~$40 / month).

Recent screen captures indicate this house was still on the market until recently, and remained for sale for close to two whole years (look at the list date):

912-broadway-movoto.jpgThe sale history on Zillow shows one recent transaction in 2002, for $609,000.

According to multiple sources, this property finally sold for $600,000. That's $9,000 + probably $30,000 or so in commissions below the previous transaction price, and a whole 31% off the last list price.

The moral of the story? If an agent tries to talk you out of lowball offers, or says she doesn't want to insult the seller, fire her at once.
The trashed two-houses-on-one-lot dealio at 547 Pacific Avenue is back as MLS(r) #40435505 with the following description:

Fixer---two houses on one lot. Second is stripped to rafters. First needs major repairs. Great for the investor or handyman. Live in one-rent the other.

547-pacific-street-view.jpgI wonder if you're you expected to live in the "stripped to rafters" unit while renting the unit that needs major repairs, or the other way around? Either way, it sounds like a great-quality-of-life, high-cash-flow situation, doesn't it?

The transaction history is amusing:

Date Event Price
Oct 23, 2009 Listed $485,100
Aug 19, 2009 Sold $412,000
Jun 29, 2006 Sold $655,000
Apr 03, 1987 Sold $175,000

It looks as though the repossessing back is trying to turn a slight profit on the sale this time around.

Today's new Bayport McMansion is a fine, fine example of what not to do during an asset bubble. 318 Lina Avenue has the following specs:

4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, 3,150 sqft, 3,840-sqft lot, MLS(r) #40435548, $825,000 (plus $119 / mo HOA dues)
Exceptional price for this stunning Malpeque model at Bayport. Highly upgraded w/ onyx and wood flooring, Thermador S/S appliances, maple cabinetry throughout, [...] surround sound and so much more. ..


View Larger Map

The sale history speaks for itself:

Property History for 318 LINA Ave

Date Event Price
Oct 23, 2009 Listed $825,000
Dec 20, 2006 Sold $1,136,000

That's 27% off the initial price. Not bad.
The pointy-hat Victorian at 1009 Central is back as MLS(r) #40429761 with a new, slightly lower price of $460,750, down from $499,000 last March. Please refer to the original post for details.

1009-central-ave-street-view.jpg
Here's a summary of the listing activity since 2005:

Property History for 1009 CENTRAL Ave

Date Event Price
Sep 16, 2009 Listed $460,750
Jul 31, 2009 Sold $432,000
Jun 04, 2009 Delisted *
May 27, 2009 Relisted *
Apr 01, 2009 Delisted *
Mar 21, 2009 Listed *
Aug 04, 2005 Sold $700,000


While we're on the subject of financially-inept imprudent home buyers, this week's new post-Victorian "duplex" at 1549 Bay Street stands as another fine example of what not to do when considering a home purchase. First the specs:

3 (or 5?) bedrooms, 1 (or 1 1/2) bathroom(s), 1,398 sqft, 3,300-sqft lot, MLS(r) #40430026, $534,900 ($383 / sqft)

REO bargain priced below comps. Move in condition, [...] Victorian era home with 4 bdrms, 2+ baths, full height attic with extra room, plus a 1 bdrm unit below. [...] a remarkable find.

The discrepancy in the number of bedrooms and bathrooms between the listing and the public records is likely due to a conversion of what once was a modest single-family home to a duplex in 1940, presumably not permitted, which was amnestied by the city in 1999 (permit #B99-1696) but not reflected in the county records To their credit, the house's successive owners over the years appear to have obtained and finaled permits for a lot of the work performed on the house, which sadly can't be said of a lot of properties in Alameda. Of course a permit alone doesn't guarantee quality or durability, but at least it safeguards the next owner from having to clean up the permit history with the city or having to tear down a bunch of unwarranted improvements.

The MLS(r) photos show a pretty house in good condition, but fail to point out its proximity to large-ish buildings on both sides of Bay Street (Pagano's hardware mart on the same side and a market/liquor store across the street).

1549-bay-street-street-view.jpgThe tiny 3,300-sqft lot doesn't provide much protection against the elements and the very busy section of Lincoln just a few hundred feet to the north.

Having established all that, then, you may be interested to know the previous owner, just 4 years ago, spent $810,000 to purchase this property ($579 / sqft).


Property History for 1549 BAY St

Date Event Price
Sep 18, 2009 Listed $534,900
Jun 04, 2009 Sold $496,100
Jun 23, 2005 Sold $810,000
Jun 27, 1988 Sold $170,000

I wish that were a typo. Maybe it is. Assuming the house sells near asking price, which it just might (although spring fever has died down considerably), we're looking at a 34% drop in value in just 4 years. Alameda is different, innit?

Update 1/10/10: Sold to a newborn sucka for $555,000.

The "green" eco-friendly house at 1533 Morton Street has been on the market for a while, but only recently did it come to my attention it's highly deserving of a writeup on the blog, so here it is. Touted as a very advanced design with all sorts of ecologically sensible features, from solar panels to recycled or recyclable building materials, 1533 Morton St. has the following specs:

3 bedrooms, 3 1/2 bathrooms, 1,500 sqft, ~6,100-sqft lot, MLS(r) #40404178, $899,000

ALAMEDA'S 1ST NEW "GREEN" INFILL. [...] UBER ENVIRONMENTAL HOME. NEWLY CONSTRUCTED "SOLAR" l GREEN HOME EMBELLISHES TODAY'S HIGHLY COVETED GREEN DESIGN. [...] GREAT HOME OFFICE, GUEST ROOM OR AUPAIR.
At $360 / sqft, it's almost priced correctly, and you'd think with all those green features and potential energy savings, it'd be gone by now. But it's not--it's been on the market for almost 5 months as 8/29/09, and dropped its price from $969,000 to $899,000 on July 1.

Why would that be? It looks great on paper--big lot, big house, all the right things for the well-heeled, environmentally conscious Bay Area buyer (if you talk to agents they'll tell you those wealthy San Francisco 30-somethings with 1 1/4 children are flocking to Alameda by the boatload), and an arguably reasonable price per square foot (in context; I'd never pay that much for anything, but given the way houses are priced in Alameda, it's priced reasonably well). The agent is clearly targeting that population:

Both the Environmental Home and the immaculately restored Historic Home are located on one large lot, contiguous to the Gold Coast region of Alameda.  The highly recognized Alameda Schools are within close proximity, as well as parks, markets, shops and restaurants.  Take the Ferry, BART or Bus to San Francisco.  Ferry Ride takes only 20 relaxing minutes.  A beautiful commute.
Maybe the fact that there's a big tall 3,700-sqft house on the narrow 6,100-sqft lot RIGHT IN FRONT OF THIS PROPERTY is giving potential buyers pause (note the helpful sign pointing to today's house on the front lawn; I wonder if you're allowed to keep it after you buy to help direct your friends to your housewarming party):

1531_morton_with_1533_in_back.jpg
(photo courtesy of reader C.F. Thanks!)

With that in mind, some of the features of the property make you wonder whether they were indeed an enlightened decision on the architect's part:

In an educated effort, the architect opted to place the home’s public rooms one story above ground in order to take advantage of natural light, heat and views, while the ground level cleverly gives way to the perfect space for au pair quarters, additional family room, gymnasium or a Zen garden retreat. The uppermost level holds spacious, light-filled and naturally air-conditioned sleeping quarters.
... or merely an attempt to cope with the inevitability of a very large building mere feet away across the lot, perhaps blocking some of the sunlight during the day? Maybe one of those pesky city regulations requiring enough parking for everyone caused the designer to say "I know! Let's put the maid and the car below the house! That way we have parking, and the solar panels can actually see the sun part of the time! This house will sell in minutes!"

All that being said, what I would like to know is who in their right mind would buy a high-end-ish eco house on half a lot (with no room for grass or trees), with a big ol' antique owned by someone else in the way of street access. And be willing to deal with the indignities of a monthly $50 HOA fee. If this and the front house were marketed as one of those two-houses-on-one-lot deals, and priced at $990,000 for the pair, it might be different, although I have a hard time imagining how the mortgage works out assuming you rent one or the other; these are pretty distinctive properties catering to a very small pool of potential tenants, so vacancy rates would likely be high.

Did anybody at the design firm that perpetrated this dual monstrosity do a market analysis before creating not one but two unsellable white elephants?

Lastly, one thing that's been bothering me for a long time is how agents for large houses often boast of potential  "au-pair" quarters. Who keeps au-pairs in 2009?




Everybody probably knows about the enormous house on a giant lot at 1221 Sherman, which recently dropped its price by almost $1M all at once.

1221_sherman.jpg
Turns out it's a short sale, at least according to Redfin.

1221-sherman-redfin-short-sale.jpg
What really has me scratching my head is this:

Property History for 1221 Sherman St

Date Event Price
Jul 16, 2009 Price Changed $1,569,000
Jul 07, 2009 Listed $2,488,905
Mar 20, 1992 Sold $739,000

Bought 17 years ago, this house should be half paid off. Back then, loan underwriting still followed some standards, by and large, so let's assume a classic 80% LTV mortgage, rounding up to a $600,000 loan. 17 years later, the owners might owe $400,000. Yet here we are with a short sale listed at $1,569,000, which suggests about $1.2M or more has been added to the loan balance. I shudder to think that the initial list price ($2,488,905) was actually the current balance.

So I ask, how is that possible??!


Price drop summary

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My oh my, prices have been busy dropping left and right while I wasn't paying attention writing about them. Here's a selective summary.

  • The ugly custom Scarface house at 514 Westline Drive dropped its price multiple times. It's now a new (hah) listing with MLS(r) #40421430, priced at $1,098,000, and a short sale. Its last sale date when it was brand new just three years ago was $1,488,000. I guess that wasn't one of those lucky 8s. Assuming it sells for the current list price, that's a 26% loss, in case your calculator is broken.

  • A newish listing at 1221 Sherman St, huge and overrun by expensive clutter inside and out, was initially listed for a hilarious $2,488,905 (note the extra five bucks tacked on at the end there) with MLS(r) 40418269 and dropped its price by almost a million all at once in mid July, to a still-too-high $1,569,000. The description is amusing as well:

[...] Lots of living space; great for entertaining: wedding, tea party, wine tasting... [...]

Given how often people tend to have weddings, it makes you wonder if the agent is suggesting a side business for the would-be owners to help pay the oversized mortgage. Dan and Irene have a writeup on their blog that seems to agree with my horror at the clutter oozing from the MLS(r) photos. Packing and moving all that stuff out is going to cost a fortune. And as for the initial $2.5M price tag, perhaps the owners and the agent realized that of those few people who can drop that kind of money on a house, not a whole lot of 'em decide to live in our little town. The highest-priced sales I can remember are the enormous bocce ball court on St Charles and the gigantic, fantastically laid-out Victorian compound at 1723-1725 Central, and those were only about $2M (each, sadly). Update: a short sale (?!?).

  • The apparently unsellable "mansion" at 1626 Alameda Avenue miraculously dropped its price and now stands unsold at $950,000. Dan and Irene have a writeup on this one as well that points out some serious potential issues with the property's permit history, among other things.

  • The super-classy trailer park Victorian at 1609 Lincoln (the one with the coin-op laundry facilities) has dropped to $899,000. It's been on the market for ages now. $899,000 is only $9,000 over the last purchase price back in 2005. 
  • The oddly-shaped 709 Haight Avenue is sticking to its highly-successful strategy of multiple, itty-bitty price drops:
07/21/09: $419,900 to $414,900
07/21/09: $414,900 to $399,000
07/29/09: $399,000 to $389,000

We know how well that worked out back when it was $624,900 $614,900 $609,900 $589,900 $569,900 $504,900.
  • The giant red-tagged wreck at 855 Cedar Street dropped its price from $935,000 to $885,000. There is no chance in hell this is selling for a penny over $500K, and even that would be completely insane given how much work it will require. Check out the big photos on Zillow to get a sense of how ruined this property is. I walked by a few months ago and was struck by what looks like years, if not decades, of complete neglect and abandon, sealed by the red tags on the boarded-up front door. It's a real shame, because the woodwork in the interior photos looks as though the house could be truly magnificent (not to mention huge; 4,810 sqft of living space on a big lot). This one breaks my heart a little. Zillow has it listed at $790,000, so at this rate there's hope for a more reasonable price in 10-12 years or so.

855-cedar-zillow.jpgThere are more, of course, but more on that later.

Today's craigslist post made me laugh and cringe at the same time. Evidently, some hapless flipper needs a lesson in market economics. Emphasis added.

$550000 / 3br - Will sell for Mortgage due! (alameda)


Reply to: alamedaplumbing@alamedanet.net [Errors when replying to ads?]
Date: 2009-05-16, 9:16AM PDT


I have a freshly remodeled house. New plumbing, electrical, kitchen & bath, 40 yr roof, hardwood floors, crown molding, new carpet... A real jewel in a great Harbor Bay/Bay Farm Island neighborhood. I was planning to turn it over for a profit but that is not the case. The home is in a great school district, across the street from a Park, view of the golf course... Location Location Location! This would be a great investment property for someone with working capital and proper credit. I owe $550K on it and am willing to let it go for what I owe. I want to save my credit status without becoming a statistic. With interest rates where they are it is a possible positive cash flow situation. Serious inquiries only. Pre qualified applicant only. We can go through a real estate attorney and save Realtors fees. Please contact me at 510 368-0277 and I can arrange a walk thru.
Bruce
P.S.This place will jump in value as soon as real estate prices start to climb again! Can send picture or you can google map it and see the neighborhood

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PostingID: 1173852542

First, what you're willing to let it go for is irrelevant if you have to sell. The market will tell you what it should go for, and that's that.

Second, the way rents are going, there is no way this is a positive cash flow situation unless you have one of those exotic low-payment, interest-only, etc. mortgages. Just do the math and stop lying to people. But I guess you'd have to stop lying to yourself first.

Third, you're an idiot and you're getting burned. Your credit should take a hit, because you did something stupid and you should be prevented from doing it again for a few years (and costing the rest of us a bunch of bailout money that would be much better directed towards, say, health care, education, world peace, the end of AIDS and malaria, or something else productive). Hopefully a number of other idiots like you people who are jumping into a still-overpriced market now will get burned as well and help the market drop where it needs to be.

One thing this would-be seller is good at is tautology:

P.S.This place will jump in value as soon as real estate prices start to climb again!
Maybe (s)he is a descendant of Yogi Berra.
You may remember the heinous failure of the auction scheduled a few Fridays ago for 1238 Versailles. Looks like they're trying a real listing again, listed at $1,395,000.

$1395000 / 6br - BED & BREAKFAST INN RESTAURANT & TEAHOUSE (alameda) (map)


Reply to:
Date: 2009-05-05, 12:06PM PDT


Beautiful historic property renovated with building permits. Rated as a 14 year old house by the insurance company! Bed and Breakfast Inn, Restaurant and Teahouse established over 25 years. Live where you work in a gorgeous Island setting. Ferries are accessible to take you all over the Bay Area, as well as access to Bart (Bay Area Rapid Transit) Six bedrooms, six baths, six fireplaces and a full commercial kitchen approved by the Alameda County Health Department. We have an exemption from parking and the property is zoned commercial, so this is a legal conforming use - no Use Permits required.

The "Oldest House in Alameda" 22nd City Historical Monument, since 1854, shipped around the Cape Horn designed by Andrew Jackson Downing. Large coastal redwood trees and California live oak create a very unique setting in this east end property. We have been hosting High Tea and Dinners daily as well as weddings and receptions. Owners retiring after 25 years. We are only the second owners. Chance of a lifetime! Call 510-523-9697 for a private showing.

Versailles Ave at Encinal Ave (google map) (yahoo map)
  • it's NOT ok to contact this poster with services or other commercial interests

"Live where you work"? How many people who can afford a $1.4M house work in Alameda?

"Only the second owners"? Let's do a little math. "After 25 years" means the house was purchased in 1984. Since it was built in 1854, the previous, original owner was at least 150 years old when they sold (assuming they were at least 20 years old when they bought the house new). That's another seriously old seller. The weather on the island must be very good for one's health and longevity.

Oh, and it didn't sell at $1,395,000, and nobody bid on it at the auction even though it started at $595,000. So what exactly makes you think it'll go this time around?
To my surprise, an old favorite that failed to sell for the longest time is now back on the market. 1600 Dayton has the following specs:

6 bedrooms, 4 1/2 bathrooms, 4,000 sqft, 9,555-sqft lot, MLS(r) #40408137, $1,799,000

Gold Coast Estate-1928 Original owner, custom. Sunken LR, outstanding craftsmanship. New Kitchen, new appliances. [...] natural wood entry, french doors, gothic touches, hardwood floors. [...]
At $1.8M ($450 / sqft) it's getting closer to the price it needs to be for a high-end mansion type, although it's still a mighty big check to write. It's certainly priced better today than it was the last few times it was listed:

1600-dayton-catalist.jpg
or:

1600-dayton-hbr-google-cache.jpg

Property History for 1600 DAYTON Ave

Date Event Price
May 04, 2009 Listed $1,799,000
Dec 16, 2008 Delisted *
Sep 29, 2008 Price Changed *
Mar 25, 2008 Price Changed *
Jan 02, 2008 Listed *
Jul 07, 2007 Listed *

The neighborhood is about as good as it gets, and while it's not my cuppa architecturally speaking, it might actually sell this time around, assuming it's structurally sound (one of the issues with another very large property that remains unsold after multiple large price drops, in addition to its owner's questionable ethics, was its giant brick foundation and a lot of "deferred maintenance" on the roof and various other parts). The one thing I vaguely remember from one of Dayton's prior incarnations was some truly hideous wood paneling in one of the rooms, but it shouldn't incur too big a penalty.

1600_dayton_corner.jpg
1600_dayton_side.jpgThanks for the well wishes, everyone.

Update 9/29/09: Finally sold for $1,622,500.
The 900 block of Post Street is one of the main island's more desolate spaces, dotted with some of the ugliest, most depressing post-war construction you're likely to see in this area. After what was evidently a failed attempt a year ago, 992 Post is back on the market as MLS(r) #40403453, with the following description:

Don't let the square footage fool you this ranch style home in Alamedas east end is compact but very livable. Completely remodeled in 2007 with upgraded custom granite counter tops in the kitchen and stainless steel appliances. [...] new plumbing, electrical, furnace, continous flow hot water heater and dual paned windows. [...] quiet no-outlet tree lined street within walking distance to top tier schools and great parks. It's like a brand new house

992-post-craigslist-smaller.jpgThe full-blown remodel probably cost a pretty penny. It's not as if this house was cheap the last time around:

Last sale and tax info

Sold 10/03/2006: $550,000
2008 Property Tax: $6,921
It's now listed at $535,000, down a full $150,000 from last year's initial list price. If this is a flip gone bad, it is spectacular. We need a few more of those to make sure specuvestors stay out of the market for a few years. If not, why did the owners spend so much on a tiny house that evidently needed so much work, if they were likely to move so quickly, when all signs pointed to an impending market crash?
Combine a busy schedule with what looks like a Spring-bounce-ready market full of new listings, and you get a much abbreviated, but hopefully still informative, threefer post. The "appreciation" calculations are based on 4.5% yearly adjustment for inflation, 6% agent commissions, and 2009 sale at full list price (yes, I know, a likely story).

Today's gravitational cutlery includes the specimens below:

311 Centre Court, 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom townhouse, 1,720 sqft, $579,000 ($337 / sqft)

2009: $579,000
2004: $570,000
Appreciation*: -$166,000

311-centre-court-craigslist.jpg
248 Cheswick Court, 3-bedroom, 2 1/2-bathroom townhouse, 1,891 sqft, $679,900 $624,900 ($330 / sqft)

2009: $624,900
2008: $719,938 (foreclosure/repo, most likely, although listing disingenuously says "Not a Short Sale"
2005: $731,500
Appreciation: -$285,000

248-cheswick-court-craigslist.jpg
3292 Washington Street, 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom SFH, 1,563 sqft, $688,000 ($440 / sqft)

2009: $688,000
2005: $674,000
Appreciation: -$157,000

3292-washington-st-craigslist.jpg
It's always a great time to buy.

The kicker is that all three of these great investments are significantly overpriced and have very little chance of meeting my third assumption.
Speaking of fake wealth destruction, today's little Victorian at 1009 Central is up there with the best of them.

4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms (+ 2 non-permitted bathrooms), 1,365 sqft, 5,440-sqft lot, MLS(r) #40401382, $499,000

Beautifully maintained Victorian [...] lot of charm. Hardwood floors, updated kitchen [...] 2 bathrooms without permit [...] no garage but huge driveway for plenty of parking.

1009-central-ave-street-view.jpgThe pointy roof looks odd to me--I could be convinced it's original to the 1891 building, but something tells me it was added later on, based on countless other little Victorian cottages sprinkled all over the island.

The listing claims this is a two-story home, but it looks like a one-floor, high-basement cottage with a finished (or not) basement. There's what looks like a permit ready to go to convert the basement back to storage, so I'm not sure whether all four of the bedrooms (not to mention the two stowaway bathrooms) would stay:

Case / Application / Permit Number     CB07-1243
Type / Classification     Building
      Combination Building Permit
      Residential / Over the Counter
Address     1009 CENTRAL AVE
ALAMEDA, CA 94501  
Parcel Number     073-0392-015-00
File Date     11/16/2007
Status     B_OTC -  Ready to Issue
Status Date     2/15/2008
Valuation     $0.00
Fees     $7,107.35
Payments     $3,553.50
Balance     $3,553.85
Description     CODE ENF:X04-0395 & X05-0222(MM)CONVERT BASEMENT BACK TO STORAGE AREA BY CAPPING OFF BATHROOMS & KITCHEN -PLBG/MECH/ELE FROM ORIGINAL SOURCE & CONVERT ATTIC BACK TO STORAGE AREA (BLDG/PLBG/MECH/ELE)

I didn't find a permit for foundation work; one other recent permit indicates some sheetrock had to be removed in the basement to ascertain whether basement walls were load-bearing and bring the basement up to code. All of this suggests to me the foundation might need some work, but again I'm happy to be corrected if anyone has credible evidence to the contrary (one wishes more homes would make that determination as easy as 2323 Buena Vista).

Now, what about that phantom wealth destruction?

Property History for 1009 CENTRAL Ave

Date Event Price
Mar 21, 2009 Listed $499,000
Aug 04, 2005 Sold $700,000
That's about 29% off its 2005 sale price. Of course, I expect some agent to chime in triumphantly when it sells quickly after multiple bids over asking. They can cling to their denial of the inevitable return to normalcy that's hitting the Bay Area for as long as they want. 

Update 9/19/09: Relisted for $460,750.
It appears that spamming Craigslist with borderline bait-and-switch ads and even the old "Taking multiple offers on Saturday from 1 to 4" trick didn't work (imagine that!), so 601 Fortress Isle is back on the market.

Again.

It's now on the MLS(r) as #40401150 (no Redfin link yet), listed for $722,000, with no description. The same broker that was carpet-bombing Craigslist with his idiot agents who think Alameda has an ocean view and a lake still has the listing.