As time goes on, I would expect to see more distressed sales from recent purchases (2005 and newer), and fewer from older transactions, at least based on the ARM reset schedule as I understand it. Interestingly, though, I've been seeing a lot of properties coming on the market in various degrees of avowed or suspected distress that were sold in the first half of the 2000s, so one has to assume the first wave hasn't completely crashed yet.

Today's craigslist post is one of those. 2 bedrooms, 2 1/2 bathrooms, 1,550 sqft, $385,000 ($248 / sqft).

$385000 JUST ON MARKET -SHORT SALE-FABULOUS 2BD,2.5BA TOWNHOUSE NEAR SSHORE (alameda) (map)

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Reply to: rnied@apr.com ^[?]

Date: 2008-08-30, 10:00AM PDT

This fabulous 2Bd/2.5Ba Townhouse is located in a prime location within walking distance to Alameda Town Centre with Trader Joe's, TJ Max, Starbucks and close to the beach. This sunny unit has 2 master bedroom suites, high vaulted ceilings, spacious open floor plan, fireplace in living room, carpeted throughout, 2 car garage, private patio and shared pool. A similar unit sold in July of 2008 for $492,500! Take advantage of this short sale. Call and set up a viewing appointment with Rose Nied, Alain Pinel Realtors, (510) 530-7011. (No photos yet. DO NOT DISTURB OCCUPANT. All terms and conditions are subject to the lender).

2063 at Whtehall Pl

The "2 master bedroom suites" makes me think someone went a little crazy self-indulgent with a HELOC-funded remodel (but I don't know that for a fact). This might be borne out by the short-sale price of $385,000, which one assumes should be just enough to cover the amount owed, given the sale history--it seems as though the original $300,000 sale price (which in a reasonable market should mean a $240,000 loan balance) has grown a beer belly:

Sale History
08/01/2000:	$300,000
11/07/1996:	$165,000

This is good news for those of us waiting for a return to sanity in the market, as there appears to be a large supply of comp-resetters available for the foreseeable future. I have the feeling we won't see any significant tightening of the market until around 2011. We'll have run through the bulk of the distressed inventory, and because sales volume started dropping severely in 2007, there should be a relative paucity of new listings coming on the market then (compared to today), contributing to reduced supply. We shall see.

Update 10/25/08: Still on the market, at the same price of $385,000. Looks like the agent has done some advance work (emphasis mine):

FABULOUS Condo! Close to Everything-Town Center-Great Shopping Trader Joes, TJ Max, Starbuck. Walking distance to Beach. Vaulted Clgs, 2 Mstr Ste., Open Floor Plan, Frpl, Spacious/Sunny. Private Garden. Shared Pool. Really nice. Rencent Comp July of '08 $492,500. This is a short sale-I have been in contact with bank and they are willing to move quickly on this. Don't miss this opportunity--great space, great price...Make it your next home!

For more information or showings call: Rose Nied, Alain Pinel Realtor, (510) 530 7011

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The hackneyed trope in today's craiglist post is so absurd it made me chuckle:

I could imagine driving around, spotting a gorgeous Victorian, and having that kind of exchange. But a ground floor condo that's not even on the beach? Please. The publicly available specs are hardly exciting:

2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 1,228 sqft, built in 1975, $409,000 ($333 / sqft)

This unit has evidently been on the market for a while, and undergone at least one price drop:

No sale history is available on Zillow or Trulia.

Let's hope for the seller's sake the conversation in the car doesn't end like this:

Today's Craigslist post doesn't beat around the bush. It comes out and tells you this is an REO and gets right down to business.

$509000 ALAMEDA FORECLOSURE!! (Bay Farm Island) (alameda) (map)

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Reply to: anthony@anthonympayne.com ^[?]
Date: 2008-08-23, 10:51AM PDT

A Bank Owned Foreclosure, In a Wonderful Bay Farm Island Location, 2 Bedrooms & 1.5 Baths, 1035 SqFt., Well Maintained, Single Level Home, Close to Ferry. Don't Miss This One!!

[...]

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Today's Craigslist post is mostly interesting for the click-through experience once you land on the agent's site.

It's not obvious to me what is gained from posting videos rather than seachable, scannable, indexable, Google-findable plain text content, but that's only tangentially relevant.

The property listed in the post appears to be a fairly nondescript 1970s townhouse:

3 bedrooms, 1 1/2 bathrooms, 1,321 sqft, listed at $436,500

Non-round numbers like $436,500 always raise the Red Flag of Repossession for me, and sure enough this townhouse was bought for way too much money (~$424 / sqft) near the peak of the bubble in 2005, and appears to have been subsequently repossessed and put back on the market for a whole $123,500 less (~$330/sqft), an impressive 22% drop in market value in just 3 years.

Sales History

Sale History & Tax Info

Sale History
07/24/2008:	$468,453 *
08/18/2005:	$560,000
09/20/2001:	$325,000
No other sale data is available
* Transaction not included in Zestimate. This transaction was not used in computing the Zestimate [...] due to anomalies [... which] can include unusual document or transaction types, sales between possibly related parties, unusually high or low transaction prices, or other data irregularities that might indicate the transaction is not a full-value, arms-length transaction.

And on we go.

It's not often that I compliment sellers or agents on their pricing strategy, so I'll make this one special: I'm creating a new category, "priced to sell," to highlight listings with non-idiotic prices relative to the current market. It doesn't mean I condone those prices--in most cases they're still too high given rents, salaries and other indicators. That's why the category isn't named "The price is right." Still, I wanted to recognize these sellers' non-cluelessness, and have an archive where all those listings could be found together for ease of reference. It might be fun to track how quickly the category grows as the market cools off, say, around the holidays.

Today's inaugural inductee is a large townhouse on Oak Park Drive (MLS #40361652):

3 bedrooms, 2 1/2 bathrooms, 1,701 sqft, listed in early August, 2008

Here's the third post in Izabella Lipetski's "or best offer" serial Craigslist novel.

$439000 Asking Price or Best Offer on this Great Townhouse!! CALL NOW!! (alameda)

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Reply to: ilipetski@yahoo.com
Date: 2008-08-15, 11:23AM PDT


Sunny Islandia C Model on Fir Ave. Asking price: $439,000 or best offer! New carpet 7/08. Alarm system. New roof 2007. Close to tennis courts. Master bedroom has vaulted ceilings and overlooks greenbelt. Near shopping and transportation. Double car garage and patio. Newer sinks in the bathrooms and newer counter tops in the bathrooms and kitchen.

For more information and/or for a private showing of this home, please contact Izabella at (510)522-9600. And please visit my website: www.izabellalipetski.com

This unit appears to have been purchased the year it was built and owned by the same person since then, so even if the "best offer" they get is lower than their asking price, as long as they didn't go wild with cash-out refinances:

Seller Facts:

• Townhouse
• 3 beds
• 1.0 bath
• 1,340 sqft
• Lot 1,540 sqft
• Built in 1971

Last sale and tax info

Sold 09/10/1971: $30,500

2007 Property Tax: $1,462

An asking price of $439,000 corresponds to 7.5% y-o-y appreciation every year since it was sold. That's quite a bit higher than historical trends that more or less track inflation + about 1%.

Average Annual Home Price Appreciation

Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight
From 1994-1998 (5 years)

United States	4.3
Alaska	4.0
Alabama	4.5
Arkansas	3.9
Arizona	5.7
California	3.4
Colorado	7.5
Connecticut	2.3
District of Columbia	3.2
Delaware	2.1
Florida	3.7
Georgia	6.0
Hawaii	2.1
Iowa	5.0
Illinois	3.7
Indiana	5.1
Kansas	5.5
Kentucky	5.1
Louisiana	5.2
Massachusetts	5.8
Maryland	1.9
Maine	3.6
Michigan	8.3
Minnesota	6.2
Missouri	4.8
Mississippi	5.4
Montana	5.1
North Carolina	5.4
North Dakota	4.0
Nebraska	5.6
New Hampshire	4.6
New Jersey	2.6
New Mexico	3.9
Nevada	2.8
New York	2.6
Ohio	5.2
Oklahoma	3.9
Oregon	7.4
Pennsylvania	2.2
Rhode Island	1.9
South Carolina	5.3
South Dakota	4.9
Tennessee	5.7
Texas	3.4
Utah	8.3
Virginia	2.6
Vermont	2.0
Washington	5.2
Wisconsin	5.4
West Virginia	4.5
Wyoming	5.4

Assuming 5% y-o-y appreciation we'd be looking at an asking price around $190,000. It'd sell in 24 hours at that price...

The second of Izabella's "obo" craigslist posts this week is...

12 Shepardson Lane is listed at an asking price $609,000 (MLS #40337083). No price drop history is available on Zip Realty, despite of an unflattering 4 months or so on the market as of this writing. The publicly available home specs include:

2 bedrooms, 2 1/2 bathrooms, 1,658 sqft condo, listed in mid April, 2008, currently listed at $609,000

$609000 ASKING PRICE OR BEST OFFER FOR THE BEAUTIFUL & SPACIOUS TOWNHOUSE!! (alameda)

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Reply to: ilipetski@yahoo.com
Date: 2008-08-15, 11:22AM PDT

Spacious townhouse in a gated community on Shepardson Ln. Asking price: $609,000 or best offer!! Two master suites with private baths featuring marble floors and a sunny kitchen with a breakfast area. One car garage with extra parking outside. Spacious front and back yard. A must see!

For more information and/or for a private showing of this home, please contact Izabella at (510)522-9600. And please visit my website: www.izabellalipetski.com

Neither Zillow nor Trulia has any sales information about this property, so one has to give it the benefit of the doubt. That said, $609K for a (large) 2-bedroom condo near the airport ($367 / sqft) seems a little steep, considering the HOA dues are likely to be pretty high as well.

Today on Craiglist an eager seller's agent named Izabella Lipetski thought it would be helpful to state the obvious three times in a row.

Last I checked, all real estate transactions that do complete are "asking price or best offer."

Izabella didn't list the exact address on any of the three craigslist posts but a search by price and street on her site reveals the following:

423 McDonnel Road, a long-suffering single-family home in 94502

12 Shepardson Lane, a 4-month-old listing, also in 94502

3164 Fir Avenue, a condo with no MLS ID that I could find, in 94502 as well

Good luck to the sellers. One thing I'd like to see them held to is the "or best offer" language in the listings. If buyer A comes in at $250,000 and that's the best offer the sellers get within a given time frame, perhaps they should be required to take that offer.

Of course the "OBO" language comes with a built-in loophole, namely there is no expressed time limit, so you can always say "this offer is low, I'll most likely get a better one soon", thereby making the OBO language even more meaningless than it already is.

Is it supposed to instill a sense of urgency? It didn't work for me.

Today's new listing is a good-sized condo on Anchor Way, a short street in the East End near the bay/bird sanctuary (MLS #40360023). The specs are fairly unremarkable:

3 bedrooms, 1 1/2 bathrooms, 1,321 sqft, built in 1972, listed in early August, 2008 for $436,500

[...] at ravenscove. With some tlc it will sparkle. [...]

The location is nice and quiet, although the architecture (or lack thereof) of the surrounding homes doesn't have much to recommend it. But if you buy this non-sparkly condo, you get a nice break off its 2005 price:

Last sale and tax info

Sold 08/18/2005: $560,000

2007 Property Tax: $7,060

A 22% loss in under 3 years? That's pretty epic.

Astute readers pointed out this is the same unit I wrote about again just yesterday.




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