I deliberately ignored this property when it first came on the market because, frankly, 94502 condos interest me about as much as pork futures, but in the interest of comprehensiveness, here is 22 Rutland Court, a "sparkling" condo on Bayfarm, with the following specs:

2 bedrooms, 2 1/2 bathrooms, 1,519 sqft, 2,688-sqft lot, 2 stories, 2-car garage, MLS(r) #40350870

Sparkling 2 bedroom, 2.5 bath Bay Colony duet [...] near the Sshoreline, Ferry and recreation. [...] vaulted ceilings and lots of light [...] wood burning fireplace and babmboo floors make this a warm and inviting setting. The eat-in kitchen has access to the garden and rear deck ideal for entertaining. Upstairs has two master suites with tile baths and lots of closet and storeage space. [...] HOA fees are $342 mo.
[...]
bamboo floors
cheery kitchen
[...]
Serene cul-de-sac.

The MLS(r) listings is only slightly different, but obviously composed by the same person:

New Price! Easy to show--bring an offer. [...] bamboo floors, cheery eat-in kitchen, deck and garden area ideal for entertaining. Master suite [...] tiled baths. Garage & washer/dryer. Cul-de-sac near ferry & shoreline

Now, I don't know about you, but the most I'd ever pay for a good-sized 2-story townhome on Bayfarm is probably about $350,000. If that. Especially with the $342 monthly HOA dues. But the sellers are asking a trifle more--$664,700 at last reckoning. It's less than they used to want, back when it was known as MLS(r) #343705 and listed at $679,000 (that's a whopping 2.1% price drop, in case you were wondering).

I was a bit curious about the weirdly shaped new price, so I did some math and found that it's tailored almost exactly so the owners will make back their exact purchase price if the agents split a 5% commission. Imagine that. 

Last sale and tax info

Sold 10/28/2005: $630,000

2008 Property Tax: $9,915

At least the listing suggests the owners had the decency not to pimp out remodel a perfectly fine looking 16-year-old condo with a big HELOC and granite everywhere.

Sparkling or not, though, given the state of the condo market and the massive, massive premium the owners overpaid in 2005, I just don't see them getting out of this with money in the bank.

Today's coming-soon Craigslist post is about a condo in 94502 that we may have seen before.

$468000 Luxury Harbor Bay 1,520 sq.ft. (alameda) (map)

---

Reply to: see below
Date: 2008-12-12, 9:25PM PST

Coming Soon For Sale by Owner/Agent. On Beautiful Harbor Bay. Community pool and sauna. Fantastic bike/walking trails on the Bay in Alameda. Near the Ferry (To San Francisco), Two large bedrooms, two full bathrooms, Master suite has two closets, private bath, balcony. Large living room w/vaulted ceiling. Open floor plan with formal dining room. Attractive wood floors in entry, kitchen and formal dining room. Interior laundry area, attached garage with inside access. Priced thousands below comparable sold next door. Approximately 1,520 sq.ft. Phone Donnaluci 510.207.2378 --- $468,000.
108 parfait lane at sheffield

I'm not convinced this unit is the same as last September's listing, mostly because...

• the buildings in that area look considerably larger than 1,520 sqft (i.e. the street number likely matches multiple units):

• the current price is so much less than the other listing's was;
• this unit is being represented by its owner (I can't imagine why an agent/owner wouldn't represent it the first time around--it's not as if real estate agents are particularly busy these days);
• various places on the Web suggest there are at least two units at 108 Parfait Lane, with different unit numbers (#36E, #378)

Assuming there are indeed at least two units at 108 Parfait Lane, and that they are labeled inconsistently across various listings and public records sites out there, it's difficult to be certain of anything, and in particular of each unit's specific history.

That said, it's not hard to find what looks like a pre-foreclosure notice on one of the units and a previous sale price that's very close to this listing's current list price.

Another relist today! You may remember a hapless condo on High Street, which had been on the market for 7 months back in April. It didn't sell at $745,000, $680,000 or $530,000, even after a year, even though the urgency in the last listing suggested some flexibility on the seller's part:

Must sell now! Right on estuary, large living room, beamed ceilings in master, add'l b/p w/private bath. Corner fireplace, boat dock. Must see this special unit.

It's back as MLS(r) #840945, and of course it's listed at a considerably lower higher price than its last unsuccessful attempt ($589,000), presumably to ruin stoke its chances of selling in this lamentable red-hot end-of-year season.

[...] very unique location perched above the high street bridge [...] very nice view [...] boat parking in the back convienent for sea travelers. [...] top floor with open beam ceilings [...] Nice wet bar used for entertaining purposes.Two master suites, laundry facility,pool table & pingpong.

I don't mean to be cruel, but whoever wrote that pathetic description needs a spanking. Are "Very unique," "Very nice" and "Nice" the best you can come up with? When you note the "nice wet bar" is "for entertaining purposes", exactly what other purpose would a "nice wet bar" serve? Rinsing your gold fish? And the "convienent for sea travelers" bit had me in stitches for a good 7 seconds.

It's pretty clear anyone taking on this albatross and pricing it well over its previous, unsuccessful list price is either desperate or a moron (or both), and the description certainly does not contradict that contention.

Amusingly, the Zestimate for this property has plummeted from $465,500 in April to $375,000 today, a 20% drop.

Update 10/23/08: The property is now on Craigslist. There's a broker's tour where everyone's invited. Probably to refresh their memory, since the last such tour must have occurred over a year ago.

$589000 *****BEAUTIFUL CONDO WITH GREAT VIEW OF ALAMEDA BRIDGE**** (alameda) (map)

---

Reply to: greg@losnessgroup.com ^[?]
Date: 2008-10-23, 9:15PM PDT

2022 HIGH DR, ALAMEDA CA

PROPERTY AMENITIES


* Beautiful Top Floor Condo with Very Unique View of the Alameda Bridge

* Boat Dock in the back with Two Slots to Park any Boats you Have

* Laundry Facilities Downstairs in the Underground Area

* Recreation Room with Ping Pong Table, Darts, and a Pool Table

* Large Gated Underground Parking with Two Deeded Spaces

* 2 Bedroom 2 Bath Condo Both are Master Suites

* Large Kitchen Overlooking the Family Room

* Patio Overlooking the Water and an Amazing View of the Bridge

* Wet Bar Located in Family Room Perfect for Parties and Entertaining

* 1,450 Square Feet of Livable Space

* Bring Me Your Offers



BROKERS TOUR ON TUESDAY OCTOBER 28TH FROM 10-1PM, EVERYONE IS INVITED



CONTACT GREGORY STEPHENS FOR INFORMATION AND VIEWINGS

Phone #: (408)288-3500ext201 Email: greg@losnessgroup.com



2022 High St at Fernside Blvd

Today's craigslist post is a townhouse in an area of 94502 I have never heard of, "Baywood Village," but then I try not to spend too much time over there. The specs:

3 bedrooms, 2 1/2 bathrooms, 1,725 sqft, MLS(r) #40373871, $565,000

This spacious three bedroom, two and a half townhome is located in the Harbor Bay subdivision of Baywood Village. The living room and master suite are large with beamed ceilings and plenty of light coming through the high windows. The kitchen has a breakfast bar with an adjoining family room. There are three outdoor patios to be able to enjoy the greenbelt-like grounds. Check out the walking path along the lagoon. Close to shopping and restaurants with a community swimming pool, this is a very desirable home priced to sell.
(description from vflyer, not an MLS site)

I don't know about "priced to sell"--$328 / sqft for a condo that probably comes with hefty HOA dues (not mentioned in the post) is a bit steep. That said, it's almost back to its 2003 price judging by its sale history:

Last sale and tax info

Sold 08/20/2003: $512,000

2007 Property Tax: $6,832

In fact, it's another one of those listings where the agent's extensive, professional comparative market analysis  curiously came out to the previous price + 6% agent commission + basic maintenance costs over 5 years, almost exactly. Funny how those CMAs work out.

The condo market isn't well, but some sellers (and/or their agents) thankfully show signs of moderate brain activity. Today's craigslist condo is one of the first sub-$300K 1000+sqft 2-bedroom condo I've seen in town, in a building with looks far less ignominious than the hideous 1970s boxes you see all over town:

2 bedrooms, 1 1/2 baths, 1,071 sqft, MLS(r) #40374497, $279,950

$279950 Open House Sat 10/11 1-4pm Townhouse Style Condo in 4-Unit Bldg. (alameda) (map)

---

Reply to: gailmtravers@hotmail.com ^[?]
Date: 2008-10-10, 5:35PM PDT

Open House Saturday, 1-4 pm. With townhouse privacy, this two-bedroom, bath and a half condo offers spacious bedrooms and a quiet location at the rear of a small, friendly community. With only 4 units, it’s well located to shopping and restaurants and its low HOA dues ($125 mo.) complete the package. At this price, with a little TLC, it’s a perfect first-time homebuyer opportunity.

(try to ignore the non-sequitur-laden sentence structure of "With only 4 units, it’s well located to shopping and restaurants and its low HOA dues ($125 mo.) complete the package").

Of course, Beelzebub only knows how much backbreaking work TLC this condo requires; for all I know it's a wreck inside. But breaking the $300K barrier (and not just by $1000, either) for a condo that can house more than one person is something to be celebrated.

Don't break out the streamers and silly hats just yet, though--the asking price still reflects fairly aggressive year-over-year appreciation expectations by the seller:

Last sale and tax info

Sold 05/29/1998: $135,000

2007 Property Tax: $2,567

That works out to an average 7.5% y-o-y appreciation rate, which given the "TLC" requirements (code for "the owners did minimum maintenance in 10 years of ownership", I suspect) and the nosedive the market has taken in recent months is pretty high. Maybe they fell for the Göbbelsian propaganda heard the "fact" that home values double every 10 years and figured they'd test the hypothesis scientifically.


Update 12/13/08: Sold in less than a week for $305,000.

Today's craigslist post doesn't beat about the bush. Why rent, indeed, when you can pay more to own a property that's losing value by the day?

$300000 Distress Sale * Short Walk to Shoreline Dr * Why Rent? * Only 3% Down! (alameda)

---

Reply to: hous-859914599@craigslist.org ^[?]
Date: 2008-09-29, 12:19PM PDT


LIGHT AND AIRY 2ND FLOOR UNIT WITH ENCLOSED PATIO. SPACIOUS LIVING/DINING. 1 BLOCK TO THE BEACH. CLOSE TO SHOPPING AND TRANSPORTATION. COMMUNITY POOL. LOCK BOX IS ON THE WATER PIPE NEAR THE DRIVEWAY. Please click on the property address to view the full details of this property. If you are pre-approved (no pre-quals please) and not working with an agent, feel free to contact me for a private showing.

$299,000 - 325 KITTY HAWK Unit 206

 

All my best,

Mustafa Afzali, ePro

The unit itself is small and unremarkable, and still way overpriced at $350 / sqft:

2 bedrooms, 1 1/2 bathrooms, 854 sqft, built in 1964

This complex is so close to the beach you can almost see Russia San Francisco from there:

And sure enough, this is a semi-recent overpriced purchase:

Last sale and tax info

Sold 01/27/2004: $290,000

2007 Property Tax: $4,104

Another one bites the dust. Yay

Update 10/29/08: Still on the market, at the same price.

Update 11/1/08: An identically-sized neighbor just closed for $275,000. Why rent!
 

It seems the market has ground to a stop this week, perhaps in reaction to the current crisis on Wall Street. But that hasn't stopped owners on Parfait Lane from advertising their overpriced condos on craigslist.

102 Parfait Lane and 108 Parfait Lane have identical specs:

2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 1,534 sqft, $410 / month HOA dues

Accordingly, they also have near-identical descriptions (and presumably the same amenities for the same $410 / month HOA dues).

102 says "Well-maintained upper unit at Brittany Landing The Bay. Located next to San Francisco Bay there are bay and lagoon walking paths with sweeping San Francisco views. The Harbor Bay Fitness Club is a short walk and Brittany Landing has a lovely pool and hot tub. Spacious open rooms with vaulted ceilings and a balcony off the master bedroom are just a few of its special features"

108 says "beautiful 2 bedroom 2 bathroom condo in brittany landing at the bay in harbor bay, alameda. 1534 sq. ft. newer hardwood floors in entry, kitchen and hallway. gated community with 24 hr. security. swimming pool and spa. carefree living in alameda. available for viewing by appointment only. monday thru friday 9am to 4pm. no weekend viewing. call Ron Palmer at 510-735-4753 for your own personal tour. Prudential California Realty 3320 Grand Ave Oakland, Ca"

102 was purchased almost 20 years ago:

Last sale and tax info

Sold 07/31/1989: $239,000

2007 Property Tax: $4,345

108 was purchased 4 1/2 years ago:

Last sale and tax info

Sold 03/12/2004: $438,000

2007 Property Tax: $5,912

And therein lies the rub for Ron Palmer's listing: 102 is asking for about 9% more than 108's previous purchase price ($480,000), while its neighbor is trying to get a whopping $645,000, a 34% premium over the other unit, which is already arguably overpriced at $313 / sqft with those sizable HOA dues ($4,920 per year that's not going into your roof/flooring/plumbing fund or other property-value-enhancing vehicle).

Another interesting sign of the times is that it took 15 years for $239,000 to grow into $438,000 (a fairly normal 4.125% y-o-y appreciation), but 108's owner has no qualms about expecting the same absolute gains in just four years (a completely unreasonable 10.125% y-o-y appreciation). And 102 claims to be an upper unit, which is arguably better than a ground-floor unit--no amount of flamenco dancing by your neighbors can dislodge your chandeliers or rattle your dentures.

I once heard a house owner deride condo living as a lifestyle sought after by fat retirees wearing big gold chains and half-open Hawaiian shirts. I see it more as a dangerous proposition when near-perfect comps are right under your nose (16 ft away, per Google's walking directions), waiting to strike at your listing with the exact same offerings and a lower price.

In any case, $410 / month sure buys you a lot of Hawaiian shirts. 

It's condo night at the Opine compound. Another example of skillful financial management on boring lovely Otis Drive caught my eye. 2033 Otis Drive, unit B, has the following unappetizing specs:

1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, 741 sqft, built in 1968, MLS(r) #40338934, $299,000

Fully renovated in 2006. Pool view [...] granite counters in kitchen, stainless steel appliances

On the plus side, it's a block away from the hospital lagoon, which is handy when you're in the mood for a lye-and-tonic a bird-watching stroll.

Did I mention it's only $299,000, a mere $404 / sqft? And that there are at least two slightly newer comparable condos, closer to the beach, with none of the traffic you get at the Otis and Willow intersection? They're also considerably closer to the park, and on the market for quite a bit less.

This unit actually started much higher, listed at $370,000 in late April, 2008. It dropped to $350,000 soon after that, in early May, and then again to its current price, $299,000, in mid-June. It hasn't dropped any further since, and I get the feeling it just can't, given its sale history and its full renovation with Terminator appliances and lapidary countertops. It was already listed at a loss back in April, even without counting the renovation.

Last sale and tax info

Sold 04/21/2006: $375,000

2007 Property Tax: $1,148

This unit has been for sale for over 4 1/2 months, and it was listed at just the right time for the fabled "Spring bounce" that took the Alameda market by storm mostly spared Alameda and everywhere else in the country (sales volume down 9.4%, price down 27.3% y-o-y in July for Alameda County, per DataQuick). This is another great development for the market. Let's see how it weathers the end of the selling season and the holiday sneer cheer.

Earlier today I blogged about a condo on Shorepoint Court that's down 33% in real dollars since its last sale. As it turns out, there's competition right across the street, at 965 Shorepoint Court.

1 bedroom, 1 1/2 bathrooms, 773 square feet, $279,000, MLS(r) #40349068

[...] View of pool from both living and bedroom. [...] Very quiet complex. Clean and fresh unit.

The price has been dropped by a measly $10,000 already, and the unit has been on the market for a little over 3 months. It's smaller than its cousin at 960, but offers an extra half bath, for $39,000 more. The view of the pool is pitched as a bonus, but I'm not sure I want to see my HOA meeting cohorts in their Speedos (or hear the shrieks of their divorced spouses' children around the pool every other weekend) from both my living room and bedroom.

This unit was purchased for $239,000 in 2004, and I'll be surprised if they break even after commissions and the next inevitable round of price drops (because $361 / sqft is silly).

Last sale and tax info

Sold 04/27/2004: $239,000

2007 Property Tax: $3,509

It's been a while since I blogged about a condo, and the history on 960 Shorepoint Ct #208 is worth blogging about. The unit itself is not particularly inspiring, other than the fact it's about a block away from the beach and the park.

1 bedroom, 1 bathroom, 798 sqft, built in 1972, $240,000, MLS(r) #817140

This house is situated in a very desirable neighborhood. [...] Must see to appreciate.

The condos at Crown Harbor are very nice, good sized, and very close to the water. A lot of them have great views, and the whole cluster is sheltered behind a heavy gate that keeps the riff-raff from the nearby Webster Street liquor stores out and the mostly middle-aged and senior residents in. The grounds are vast and very clean, which suggests a whopping monthly HOA fee.

That being said, they've also been grotesquely expensive, and the current market correction is hitting them very hard--they're competing on price with a million full-blown, free-standing Victorian and Craftsman houses.

A large unit on Queens Road recently dropped its price in mid August from its initial $675,000 (or $670,000, depending on where you look), while its smaller cousin had the hardest time selling (I don't know what happened to it; it's off the MLS(r) as of September, 2008). So I thought I'd look under the carpet to see what kind of nastiness lurks beneath. First, the specs:

2 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, 1,816 sqft, townhouse, MLS(r) #40354108, $649,000

The official site describes the unit lyrically:

Lovely Townhouse Nestled Near Alameda Beach.
From your front door turn right, take 189 steps and enjoy bird and marine wildlife, the marina, views of San Francisco, and the shoreline path.
This home in a restful gated community with well-kept grounds and sweeping lawns, enjoys a bay view from the upstairs. With over 1800 square feet per the assessor, the bedroom suites are large, with vaulted ceilings, plenty of light and tree views. The home has been tastefully remodeled with hardwood floors throughout the downstairs, granite counters, cream-colored cabinetry and stainless steel appliances. The patio off the dining room is private with slate tiles and room for planting

The old price still shows, as well as an obviously over-improved bathroom and an ambiguously-worded credit at the bottom (my emphasis):

I don't know if Dianna Wyman is the owner of this particular unit--she's the (co-)owner of the Bayside Real Estate brokerage firm. For her sake, let's hope she doesn't also own our big townhouse, given...

Last sale and tax info

Sold 11/10/2005: $717,000

2007 Property Tax: $6,136

The sad funny thing is that whoever owns this place over-improved in every room, judging by the photos on the site and the description above (which suggests the remodel is the current owner's doing, at least in my reading of it), in addition to massively overpaying for a condo under 2,000 sqft three years ago. The result is a gilded elephant they're never going to be able to sell for close to a breakeven point (not even counting the cost of the remodel).

Update 9/19/08: Down we go, to $625,000. Maybe with a new agent named Belinda Young. The official site still shows the old $670,000 price as of today.


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As time goes on, I would expect to see more distressed sales from recent purchases (2005 and newer), and fewer from older transactions, at least based on the ARM reset schedule as I understand it. Interestingly, though, I've been seeing a lot of properties coming on the market in various degrees of avowed or suspected distress that were sold in the first half of the 2000s, so one has to assume the first wave hasn't completely crashed yet.

Today's craigslist post is one of those. 2 bedrooms, 2 1/2 bathrooms, 1,550 sqft, $385,000 ($248 / sqft).

$385000 JUST ON MARKET -SHORT SALE-FABULOUS 2BD,2.5BA TOWNHOUSE NEAR SSHORE (alameda) (map)

---

Reply to: rnied@apr.com ^[?]

Date: 2008-08-30, 10:00AM PDT

This fabulous 2Bd/2.5Ba Townhouse is located in a prime location within walking distance to Alameda Town Centre with Trader Joe's, TJ Max, Starbucks and close to the beach. This sunny unit has 2 master bedroom suites, high vaulted ceilings, spacious open floor plan, fireplace in living room, carpeted throughout, 2 car garage, private patio and shared pool. A similar unit sold in July of 2008 for $492,500! Take advantage of this short sale. Call and set up a viewing appointment with Rose Nied, Alain Pinel Realtors, (510) 530-7011. (No photos yet. DO NOT DISTURB OCCUPANT. All terms and conditions are subject to the lender).

2063 at Whtehall Pl

The "2 master bedroom suites" makes me think someone went a little crazy self-indulgent with a HELOC-funded remodel (but I don't know that for a fact). This might be borne out by the short-sale price of $385,000, which one assumes should be just enough to cover the amount owed, given the sale history--it seems as though the original $300,000 sale price (which in a reasonable market should mean a $240,000 loan balance) has grown a beer belly:

Sale History
08/01/2000:	$300,000
11/07/1996:	$165,000

This is good news for those of us waiting for a return to sanity in the market, as there appears to be a large supply of comp-resetters available for the foreseeable future. I have the feeling we won't see any significant tightening of the market until around 2011. We'll have run through the bulk of the distressed inventory, and because sales volume started dropping severely in 2007, there should be a relative paucity of new listings coming on the market then (compared to today), contributing to reduced supply. We shall see.

Update 10/25/08: Still on the market, at the same price of $385,000. Looks like the agent has done some advance work (emphasis mine):

FABULOUS Condo! Close to Everything-Town Center-Great Shopping Trader Joes, TJ Max, Starbuck. Walking distance to Beach. Vaulted Clgs, 2 Mstr Ste., Open Floor Plan, Frpl, Spacious/Sunny. Private Garden. Shared Pool. Really nice. Rencent Comp July of '08 $492,500. This is a short sale-I have been in contact with bank and they are willing to move quickly on this. Don't miss this opportunity--great space, great price...Make it your next home!

For more information or showings call: Rose Nied, Alain Pinel Realtor, (510) 530 7011

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The hackneyed trope in today's craiglist post is so absurd it made me chuckle:

I could imagine driving around, spotting a gorgeous Victorian, and having that kind of exchange. But a ground floor condo that's not even on the beach? Please. The publicly available specs are hardly exciting:

2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, 1,228 sqft, built in 1975, $409,000 ($333 / sqft)

This unit has evidently been on the market for a while, and undergone at least one price drop:

No sale history is available on Zillow or Trulia.

Let's hope for the seller's sake the conversation in the car doesn't end like this:

Today's Craigslist post doesn't beat around the bush. It comes out and tells you this is an REO and gets right down to business.

$509000 ALAMEDA FORECLOSURE!! (Bay Farm Island) (alameda) (map)

---

Reply to: anthony@anthonympayne.com ^[?]
Date: 2008-08-23, 10:51AM PDT

A Bank Owned Foreclosure, In a Wonderful Bay Farm Island Location, 2 Bedrooms & 1.5 Baths, 1035 SqFt., Well Maintained, Single Level Home, Close to Ferry. Don't Miss This One!!

[...]

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Today's Craigslist post is mostly interesting for the click-through experience once you land on the agent's site.

It's not obvious to me what is gained from posting videos rather than seachable, scannable, indexable, Google-findable plain text content, but that's only tangentially relevant.

The property listed in the post appears to be a fairly nondescript 1970s townhouse:

3 bedrooms, 1 1/2 bathrooms, 1,321 sqft, listed at $436,500

Non-round numbers like $436,500 always raise the Red Flag of Repossession for me, and sure enough this townhouse was bought for way too much money (~$424 / sqft) near the peak of the bubble in 2005, and appears to have been subsequently repossessed and put back on the market for a whole $123,500 less (~$330/sqft), an impressive 22% drop in market value in just 3 years.

Sales History

Sale History & Tax Info

Sale History
07/24/2008:	$468,453 *
08/18/2005:	$560,000
09/20/2001:	$325,000
No other sale data is available
* Transaction not included in Zestimate. This transaction was not used in computing the Zestimate [...] due to anomalies [... which] can include unusual document or transaction types, sales between possibly related parties, unusually high or low transaction prices, or other data irregularities that might indicate the transaction is not a full-value, arms-length transaction.

And on we go.

It's not often that I compliment sellers or agents on their pricing strategy, so I'll make this one special: I'm creating a new category, "priced to sell," to highlight listings with non-idiotic prices relative to the current market. It doesn't mean I condone those prices--in most cases they're still too high given rents, salaries and other indicators. That's why the category isn't named "The price is right." Still, I wanted to recognize these sellers' non-cluelessness, and have an archive where all those listings could be found together for ease of reference. It might be fun to track how quickly the category grows as the market cools off, say, around the holidays.

Today's inaugural inductee is a large townhouse on Oak Park Drive (MLS #40361652):

3 bedrooms, 2 1/2 bathrooms, 1,701 sqft, listed in early August, 2008

Here's the third post in Izabella Lipetski's "or best offer" serial Craigslist novel.

$439000 Asking Price or Best Offer on this Great Townhouse!! CALL NOW!! (alameda)

---

Reply to: ilipetski@yahoo.com
Date: 2008-08-15, 11:23AM PDT


Sunny Islandia C Model on Fir Ave. Asking price: $439,000 or best offer! New carpet 7/08. Alarm system. New roof 2007. Close to tennis courts. Master bedroom has vaulted ceilings and overlooks greenbelt. Near shopping and transportation. Double car garage and patio. Newer sinks in the bathrooms and newer counter tops in the bathrooms and kitchen.

For more information and/or for a private showing of this home, please contact Izabella at (510)522-9600. And please visit my website: www.izabellalipetski.com

This unit appears to have been purchased the year it was built and owned by the same person since then, so even if the "best offer" they get is lower than their asking price, as long as they didn't go wild with cash-out refinances:

Seller Facts:

• Townhouse
• 3 beds
• 1.0 bath
• 1,340 sqft
• Lot 1,540 sqft
• Built in 1971

Last sale and tax info

Sold 09/10/1971: $30,500

2007 Property Tax: $1,462

An asking price of $439,000 corresponds to 7.5% y-o-y appreciation every year since it was sold. That's quite a bit higher than historical trends that more or less track inflation + about 1%.

Average Annual Home Price Appreciation

Source: Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight
From 1994-1998 (5 years)

United States	4.3
Alaska	4.0
Alabama	4.5
Arkansas	3.9
Arizona	5.7
California	3.4
Colorado	7.5
Connecticut	2.3
District of Columbia	3.2
Delaware	2.1
Florida	3.7
Georgia	6.0
Hawaii	2.1
Iowa	5.0
Illinois	3.7
Indiana	5.1
Kansas	5.5
Kentucky	5.1
Louisiana	5.2
Massachusetts	5.8
Maryland	1.9
Maine	3.6
Michigan	8.3
Minnesota	6.2
Missouri	4.8
Mississippi	5.4
Montana	5.1
North Carolina	5.4
North Dakota	4.0
Nebraska	5.6
New Hampshire	4.6
New Jersey	2.6
New Mexico	3.9
Nevada	2.8
New York	2.6
Ohio	5.2
Oklahoma	3.9
Oregon	7.4
Pennsylvania	2.2
Rhode Island	1.9
South Carolina	5.3
South Dakota	4.9
Tennessee	5.7
Texas	3.4
Utah	8.3
Virginia	2.6
Vermont	2.0
Washington	5.2
Wisconsin	5.4
West Virginia	4.5
Wyoming	5.4

Assuming 5% y-o-y appreciation we'd be looking at an asking price around $190,000. It'd sell in 24 hours at that price...

The second of Izabella's "obo" craigslist posts this week is...

12 Shepardson Lane is listed at an asking price $609,000 (MLS #40337083). No price drop history is available on Zip Realty, despite of an unflattering 4 months or so on the market as of this writing. The publicly available home specs include:

2 bedrooms, 2 1/2 bathrooms, 1,658 sqft condo, listed in mid April, 2008, currently listed at $609,000

$609000 ASKING PRICE OR BEST OFFER FOR THE BEAUTIFUL & SPACIOUS TOWNHOUSE!! (alameda)

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Reply to: ilipetski@yahoo.com
Date: 2008-08-15, 11:22AM PDT

Spacious townhouse in a gated community on Shepardson Ln. Asking price: $609,000 or best offer!! Two master suites with private baths featuring marble floors and a sunny kitchen with a breakfast area. One car garage with extra parking outside. Spacious front and back yard. A must see!

For more information and/or for a private showing of this home, please contact Izabella at (510)522-9600. And please visit my website: www.izabellalipetski.com

Neither Zillow nor Trulia has any sales information about this property, so one has to give it the benefit of the doubt. That said, $609K for a (large) 2-bedroom condo near the airport ($367 / sqft) seems a little steep, considering the HOA dues are likely to be pretty high as well.

Today on Craiglist an eager seller's agent named Izabella Lipetski thought it would be helpful to state the obvious three times in a row.

Last I checked, all real estate transactions that do complete are "asking price or best offer."

Izabella didn't list the exact address on any of the three craigslist posts but a search by price and street on her site reveals the following:

423 McDonnel Road, a long-suffering single-family home in 94502

12 Shepardson Lane, a 4-month-old listing, also in 94502

3164 Fir Avenue, a condo with no MLS ID that I could find, in 94502 as well

Good luck to the sellers. One thing I'd like to see them held to is the "or best offer" language in the listings. If buyer A comes in at $250,000 and that's the best offer the sellers get within a given time frame, perhaps they should be required to take that offer.

Of course the "OBO" language comes with a built-in loophole, namely there is no expressed time limit, so you can always say "this offer is low, I'll most likely get a better one soon", thereby making the OBO language even more meaningless than it already is.

Is it supposed to instill a sense of urgency? It didn't work for me.

Today's new listing is a good-sized condo on Anchor Way, a short street in the East End near the bay/bird sanctuary (MLS #40360023). The specs are fairly unremarkable:

3 bedrooms, 1 1/2 bathrooms, 1,321 sqft, built in 1972, listed in early August, 2008 for $436,500

[...] at ravenscove. With some tlc it will sparkle. [...]

The location is nice and quiet, although the architecture (or lack thereof) of the surrounding homes doesn't have much to recommend it. But if you buy this non-sparkly condo, you get a nice break off its 2005 price:

Last sale and tax info

Sold 08/18/2005: $560,000

2007 Property Tax: $7,060

A 22% loss in under 3 years? That's pretty epic.

Astute readers pointed out this is the same unit I wrote about again just yesterday.




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